Ukraine enters the fourth year of all-out war with Russia, unsure it can rely any longer on its staunchest ally the United States, as its exhausted troops fight to hold their ground against unrelenting enemy advances.
Donald Trump blasted Volodymyr Zelenskiy last week as an unpopular “dictator” who needed to cut a quick peace deal or lose his country, while the Ukrainian leader said the US president was living in a “disinformation bubble”.
Beyond the war of words, US officials opened direct talks with the Russian side in Saudi Arabia last week, shutting out Kyiv and Europe in a stunning change of policy on the war.
Washington has made clear it will send no troops as a security guarantee coveted by Kyiv if a peace deal emerges, placing the burden squarely on European powers that are likely to struggle without US backing.
Ukraine’s embattled leader, who has told Europe to create its own army while urging Washington to be pragmatic, has held more than a dozen phone calls mainly with European leaders since Friday to shore up support and scope out a way forward.
Rattled by Trump’s first month back in power, numerous European leaders are expected to visit the Ukrainian capital to commemorate the anniversary of the bloodiest conflict in Europe since World War Two, alongside Zelenskiy.
Thousands of Ukrainian citizens have died and over six million live as refugees abroad since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion by land, sea and air.
Military losses have been catastrophic, although they remain closely guarded secrets. Public Western estimates based on intelligence reports vary widely, but most say hundreds of thousands have been killed or wounded on each side.
Tragedy has touched families in every corner of Ukraine, where military funerals are commonplace in major cities and far-flung villages. People are exhausted by sleepless nights of air raid sirens.
On the front, Ukrainian troops face a numerically superior foe as questions swirl over the future of vital US military assistance. It is unclear how much European allies could fill the gap if US support slows or stops.
Evhen Kolosov, head medic at an army stabilisation point for Ukraine’s Spartan brigade that is fighting in the east, said the troops were psychologically worn down.
“They’re fighting on but really those (who’ve been here) since the first days are tired, even more psychologically than physically, in the same way as medics. It’s difficult, but this is the war, who said it would be easy?”
Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine’s foreign minister from 2014 to 2019, said Zelenskiy needed to try to preserve strategic ties with Washington while enhancing relations with Europe, as well as reaching out to countries like China and India.
Klimkin said he did not think relations with Washington had reached crisis point yet, despite Trump’s outbursts.
“A tornado is not sustainable, it will pass, but it is very important not to feed it in any way.”
He did not anticipate a peace deal this year that would meet Ukraine’s ambitions for something fair and lasting, but said he thought there could be elements of a ceasefire agreement.
Oleksandr Merezhko, a lawmaker for Zelenskiy’s party who heads the parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee, said US contacts needed to be enhanced at all levels, including with the MAGA movement backing Trump.
At the heart of the current relationship is a deal under discussion that could open up Ukraine’s mineral wealth to the US, with Trump seeking hundreds of billions of dollars to repay Washington for its support.
Zelenskiy refused to sign an initial draft deal earlier this month, protesting that it was not in Ukrainian interests and did not contain the security guarantees he wanted.
Trump said on Friday a deal was close, though details remain unclear.
Reuters reported that US negotiators pressing for a deal had raised the possibility of cutting Ukraine’s access to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet system, which has played a vital role in Kyiv’s military operations.
“So we just need to play this game right – not to give up our interests on one hand, and on the other hand to support Trump,” said Merezhko.
Trump has also pressed Ukraine to hold a wartime election, appearing to side with Russia which has long described Zelenskiy as no longer legitimate.
The Ukrainian leader’s mandate was due to expire last May, but no election has been held due to martial law which was declared at the start of the invasion and prohibits holding elections.
Zelenskiy said on Sunday he was willing to give up the presidency if it meant peace, saying he could exchange his departure for Ukraine’s entry into NATO.
It is unclear how Trump’s election call and verbal attacks on Zelenskiy will affect his trust ratings, which remain above 50 per cent according to several Ukrainian polls.
Some Kyiv residents indicated they were rallying around their leader.
“I think it’s all wrong – Trump in America has the same rating as Zelenskiy has in Ukraine,” said Oleksandr Babiuk, 55, a service sector worker.
“Although I did not vote for him, I supported him throughout martial law and will continue to support him.”