What forecasters are calling an “unusually strong” storm system for this time of year is poised to intensify on Tuesday, bringing warnings for blizzard conditions to the Plains, wildfire weather to Texas, severe storms in the South and strong winds across the Central United States.
These are the key things to know:
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The most significant threat is from severe storms in the South. The system has already led to the cancellation of some Mardi Gras festivities in New Orleans.
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To the north, the storm is expected to bring blizzard conditions across the central Plains, including portions of Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas and Iowa.
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Potentially historic conditions for fire weather could lead to blazes across the Texas Hill Country and south central Texas on Tuesday, including Austin and San Antonio.
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The system is expected to affect much of the East Coast on Wednesday.
Tornadoes are possible across the Deep South.
The storm has been steamrolling across the country this week. Meteorologists predict that strengthening winds and an influx of warm, moist air from the Gulf will create favorable conditions for severe weather across the South. By Tuesday afternoon and evening, conditions in the region will be ripe for severe storms. Forecasters have warned of damaging gusts, hail and possible tornadoes from eastern Oklahoma through Alabama.
Marc Chenard, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center, said the question is not whether severe storms will occur across the South, but how strong they will be. At a minimum, a line of thunderstorms is expected to develop and sweep through Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama on a scale that people typically there see multiple times a year.
There is also a possibility that the storms could also be significantly stronger, as well as include strong tornadoes that may cause damage.
The most likely scenario is somewhere in between.
Blizzard conditions are expected to the north.
Mr. Chenard said he expects it will be “pretty nasty outside” for some in the snowier regions during this storm.
He warned of that there could be some fairly heavy snow for a short amount of time across eastern Nebraska to Iowa and even into Minnesota. Even if just a few inches of snow falls during this time, the winds may whip it around to zero visibility, which could create a deadly hazard for anyone on the road.
The Southwest faces a potentially historic fire risk.
Dry conditions are adding another layer of concern as the storm passes through. On Monday, as the storm crossed the Southwest, its winds kicked up a major dust storm in New Mexico, leading to the closure of some highways.
But one of the most potent risks with this storm is potential fire weather across Texas. Forecasters with the Storm Prediction Center have warned of “dangerous, potentially historic, fire-weather conditions” over portions of the Edwards Plateau and South Texas Plains.
“Tuesday will feature the most extreme fire danger experienced across South Central Texas in years,” a forecaster in San Antonio wrote Monday night.
The Storm Prediction Center issued its highest level risk warning for “extremely critical” wildfire conditions in portions of Texas, including San Antonio and Austin.
Here’s what typical, and not, about this system.
Mr. Chenard said that what made this storm unusual was the possibility that the pressure, one way to measure a storm’s strength, would drop to near-record-low readings for March. But storms like this one are three-dimensional, and there are ingredients other than just low pressure that can contribute to how they ultimately affect the areas they pass through.
And, in this case, Mr. Chenard said, the effects may be not really all that unusual for this time of year. There may not be much cold air behind this system, he said, which means it may not bring as much snow as could be expected with other storms. And because the storm is moving so quickly, precipitation won’t linger over one spot for long, which keeps flooding rains and snow from piling up. Still, forecasters like Mr. Chenard don’t want to underplay the risks as the storm intensifies on Tuesday.
The danger will move east on Wednesday.
As the storm continues marching eastward, it will swing rain and thunderstorms through the East Coast. The most likely area for severe storms will be across the Mid-Atlantic.
On the western side of this strong March storm, cold air could lead to snow in places that received rain the day before — or, in some cases, even hours before.