The “erratic and unpredictable” threats of tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump have made this year’s Saskatchewan budget difficult to project, according to Finance Minister Jim Reiter.
“This budget is being presented at a time of incredible uncertainty caused by the words and actions of the president of the United States on tariffs,” Reiter said as he rose in the provincial legislature Wednesday to deliver his first budget as finance minister.
Reiter’s budget stresses themes we’ve heard frequently from Premier Scott Moe: health, education and public safety.
A razor-thin surplus of $12.1 million means the 2025/26 budget, titled “Delivering for You,” is projected to be balanced. But it does not factor in any fallout from American or Chinese tariffs, including a 100 per cent tariff on canola imports set to kick in Thursday.
Saskatchewan’s approach is a departure from recent budgets in Alberta and B.C., which each featured dedicated contingency funds of $4 billion.
Tariff threat not factored in
While America remains Saskatchewan’s largest trading partner, with approximately $27 billion worth of exports crossing the border every year, Reiter said the fluidity of the tariff situation made it impossible to build the direct effects into this budget.
“We do not know whether the tariffs are going to last for three days, three months or three years, nor do we know at what rate these tariffs will be levied over time,” the budget reads.
Instead, the province is banking on a strong financial outlook and “responsible” spending to weather the impacts of tariffs.
The province did do an analysis of the potential effect of U.S. tariffs, looking at a “worst-case scenario” of one year of America’s 10 per cent tariff on Canadian energy and 25 per cent on all other Canadian exports.
It found that, under those tariffs, the value of Saskatchewan exports to the U.S. would drop by 30.4 per cent or $8.2 billion, the province’s revenue would be reduced by as much as $1.4 billion and its real gross domestic product would shrink by up to $4.9 billion.
As is tradition, Saskatchewan Finance Minister Jim Reiter purchased new shoes for provincial budget day. When shopping, he made sure to avoid U.S.- and Chinese-made footwear — a comment on the ongoing trade war.
On Wednesday, Moe defended the decision to not include tariff contingencies.
“Why would you at the outset of a budget just loan money, pay interest on that money and have it sitting there in case you need it?” he asked.
Moe said the decision will give the province the financial freedom to act as necessary.
Debt projected to go up $2.5 billion
On Wednesday, Reiter touted previously announced reductions in the province’s education property tax mill rates across all property classes and approximately $250 million in tax savings, mostly through modifying personal income tax exemptions.
The province’s revenue is projected to increase by $1.2 billion from last year to a total of $21.1 billion. That’s mostly driven by increased corporate income tax, PST and uranium royalties.
Meanwhile, the province is projected to spend $21 billion this fiscal year, an increase of $909 million from last year’s budget.
The province’s debt is projected to increase by $2.5 billion to $38.3 billion.
Moe described the budget as “delivering on the priorities that we had heard not only through the most recent campaign, but up to and since that campaign.”
The Opposition NDP pointed out that the budget offers very little that was not previously promised or outlined by the government.
Among the new announcements is a two per cent bump for the SAID/SIS program, which works out to an $11-million increase.
The province will also start charging PST on vaping products. The move is projected to bring in under $3 million a year, and is being touted as a health initiative rather than a revenue generator.
Budget a ‘work of fiction’: Opposition
The Opposition NDP slammed what it called a lack of planning from the provincial government.
“The Sask. Party’s budget is not focused on the future. It’s not even based in reality of the serious challenges Saskatchewan is facing today,” said Saskatchewan NDP Leader Carla Beck.
Beck called the budget a “work of fiction” that pretends the last three months of tariff threats didn’t happen.
NDP finance critic Trent Wotherspoon said the budget “isn’t worth the paper it’s written on” and that it’s foolhardy to trust the province’s financial numbers.
“They have a fiscal record that can’t be trusted,” he said.
The province has repeatedly relied on special warrants, injections of funding made outside the regular budget process.
The government uses special warrants to “address cost pressures and respond to emerging issues.” The province issued $923.1 million in special warrants last month and $750 million in special warrants in February 2024.
Addressing wait times, primary care
The Ministry of Health will see its budget boosted by $485 million, for a total of $8.1 billion.
Reiter said the province will use that money to connect all residents to a primary health care provider, while reducing surgical wait times by performing 450,000 procedures over four years.
The Saskatchewan Cancer Agency will receive an increase of $30 million, while the Saskatchewan Health Authority will see its budget boosted by 5.6 per cent for a total of $4.9 billion.
The spending comes as the province has been increasingly criticized for long wait lists in breast imaging and diagnostics. The province is currently paying a private Calgary clinic to perform mammograms and biopsies for patients with urgent cases that would otherwise be waiting months in Saskatchewan.
The budget reiterates that urgent care centres are planned for Moose Jaw, Prince Albert and North Battleford. A facility being finalized in Saskatoon is set to come online this year, while a Regina facility opened in July 2024.
The idea is to help relieve pressure on the province’s over-burdened emergency rooms. Although the provincial government has said it wants the facility to operate 24 hours a day, the urgent care centre in Regina has yet to adopt those hours due to limited staffing.
Reiter said the province’s Health Human Resources Action Plan is meant to address those shortages.
He added that planning has begun for an additional urgent care centre each in Regina and Saskatoon.
The budget provides no funding for safe consumption sites, with the province continuing to focus on treatment beds as a solution for the addictions crisis.
Limited increase in education operational spending
The Ministry of Education will see boosts to its school operating budget ($186 million) and school capital budget ($191 million), bringing the ministry’s total funding to $2.4 billion.
The majority of the operating budget increase, $130 million, stems from salary obligations the province agreed to as part of the recently arbitrated collective agreement between the province and its teachers.
Kindergarten to Grade 3 literacy is getting a $2-million boost, while the remaining $54 million will go to non-teacher salary increases, transportation and 50 specialized support classrooms.
Of the $191 million capital budget, $28.5 million will go toward relocatable classrooms. The remaining balance will be for ongoing funding of 21 new or consolidated schools, as well as:
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The replacement of the South Corman Park School.
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Preplanning for the joint-use public and Catholic elementary school in northeast Saskatoon.
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Preplanning for the new public and Catholic elementary schools in west Saskatoon.
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Roof and exterior repairs at the Canora Composite School.
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Renovation of the Barr Colony School in Lloydminster.
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Roof replacement at St. Olivier School in Radville.
Policing, safety and municipal funding
Saskatchewan’s public safety and policing budget is set at $798 million, with $119 million of that for the Saskatchewan Public Safety Agency and $271 million for the Ministry of Justice and Attorney General.
Reiter said the government remains committed to hiring 100 new municipal police officers. He also announced plans to open of new bylaw courts in Rosthern and Fort Qu’Appelle to take pressure off the rest of the court system.
As previously announced, Saskatchewan is also boosting its municipal revenue sharing by $22 million to a total of $362 million.
It will also dedicate $9 million to start multi-year repair and renovation projects for 285 Saskatchewan Housing Corporation-owned units in Saskatoon, Regina and Prince Albert.
The units in Regina have previously been flagged as a concern by the provincial auditor.