Muslims sick of being ignored, want hung parliament

Muslim Votes Matter (MVM) is quite clear about its objective: it wants a hung parliament, with Muslim-backed MPs holding the balance of power.

The advocacy body, one of two Muslim groups endorsing candidates at the election, launched in September, spurred on by Labor’s failure to stand with Palestine. Its first endorsement, announced on Sunday, was for Greens hopeful Samantha Ratnam, who is looking to win the prestigious Victorian seat of Wills off Peter Khalil.

MVM will be endorsing independents and minor parties in eight other seats where the Muslim community could have a deciding vote: Bruce and Calwell in Victoria; Watson, Blaxland and Werriwa in NSW; Moreton in Queensland; Sturt in SA; and Cowan in WA. All except one of those seats is Labor-held, and have relatively large Muslim constituencies who traditionally vote Labor. Liberal-held Sturt is something of an outlier, with only a 2% Muslim population.

Ghaith Krayem, MVM spokesperson, says this is about more than just the war on Gaza. The former Islamic Council of Victoria president is one of seven co-founders, only two of whom are publicly identified, due to the threat of campaigns being run against them.

“In terms of the election itself, our goal would be a Labor minority government,” Krayem tells me. “At a more strategic level, what we are aiming at is to demonstrate the political value of the Muslim community’s vote, and that when that vote is exercised strategically, it can and will have a significant impact on the political landscape.”

The registered third party is not funding candidates, with its volunteers instead manning booths as Muslim Votes Matter. It will release how-to-vote cards for all 150 seats, even where it isn’t endorsing a candidate. As for the endorsees, MVM has a clear set of priorities, and will be seeking and publishing commitments — as it has done for Greens candidate Ratnam. Candidates are asked about 15 categories, ranging from health to housing, but five priorities top the list: Palestine and international law; Islamophobia and anti-discrimination; religious freedom; reviewing national security; and refugees and asylum seekers. Palestine is easily the number one priority.

“I don’t think the major parties are appreciating just how significant this issue is within our community,” Krayem says. “In all of our community surveys, this is ranked probably five times higher than the second item on the list.”

Krayem is not concerned by claims unseating Labor MPs may lead to a hung parliament with Peter Dutton in the box seat, declaring it a scare campaign.

“It’s obviously something we’re mindful of, but the pathway for a Liberal minority government is really narrow,” he says. “That is currently being used to scare the community, not just our community but the community generally, into falling back into this pattern where you think you only have two options around voting, and that’s either the Labor Party or the Coalition… The current duopoly is not working.”

It’s worth noting MVM plans to endorse in Liberal-held Sturt, a marginal seat that’s grown increasingly progressive. Krayem can’t yet say who the group is endorsing, as it are still locking in commitments. But even a 2% Muslim vote could be enough to sway a seat held by 950 votes.

“Whether the Greens win it or Labor gets the seat, they’re going to need our 2%,” he says. “We’re more than happy to take a seat off the Coalition to demonstrate that it’s not just about numbers, that we know the political landscape and we can pick where our strategic impact will have an effect.”

The other key group to know about this election is The Muslim Vote (TMV), a collective led by Sheikh Wesam Charkawi. TMV shares its name and colours with a UK movement that last year flipped four Muslim-heavy Labour seats to pro-Palestine independents — five if you include helping now-independent Jeremy Corybn hold his — while creating big swings in many others.

Charkawi makes similar arguments to Krayem about strategy, dismissing concerns about ending up with Dutton, a la Donald Trump in the US. TMV has so far endorsed independents in the three seats with the largest Muslim populations: Ziad Basyouny in Watson (25% Muslim), Ahmed Ouf in Blaxland (32%), and Samim Moslih in Calwell (24%), who I recently profiled for Forget the Frontbench.

All three candidates are independent of MVM and TMV, and the groups may end up endorsing different figures — something Krayem says would only show how diverse the community is.

Basyouny, an Egyptian-born GP based in Sydney’s southwest, is attempting to unseat Immigration Minister Tony Burke in what has always been a safe Labor seat. Speaking to me via Zoom from his clinic, Basyouny says Watson is tired of being neglected, always getting the short end of the stick when it comes to infrastructure — hospital spending in particular.

“The idea that we’ve been unheard, or the idea that we’ve been taken for granted, was exacerbated by the fact that the Labor Party did not represent our views when it came to the Palestinian issue,” he says. “That was the straw that broke the camel’s back.”

Basyouny is highly critical of Burke, reeling off a range of issues that highlight his “incompetence”, including the fact refugees are still living in limbo on Temporary Protection Visas.

“He’s not representing us, he’s representing the Labor Party to us,” Basyouny says. “He comes around, appears in celebrations, and walks the street maybe once every three years, and gets to walk in every election with a sizeable majority. So the right thing to do is to change that from a sizeable majority to no majority, and I think we’ve achieved that.”

Labor is “heavily concerned” about the seat according to Basyouny, who says Burke held a campaign launch, has corflutes, and is doorknocking for the first time in years.

“People are not believing the idea that Tony Burke is doorknocking. ‘Is he doorknocking? No way, Tony Burke is doorknocking??’ That’s a big thing.”

Basyouny, meanwhile, has faced regular attacks in the media, mostly due to sharing an October 7 post, which he has defended as recognising Palestinians’ right to “resist oppression”. The Herald Sun this week reports he is planning to swap preferences with the Liberals — a claim Basyouny says is “ridiculous and wrong”, given that the Libs haven’t even decided if they are running in Watson. For his part, Basyouny says he has had conversations with all parties, and will be setting preferences based on conversations with the community.

Like MVM and TMV, Basyouny isn’t concerned that efforts to win seats off Labor could leave us with a hung parliament in which the Coalition holds more seats. If he wins, there will likely be multiple new independents who likewise claim victory — independents who will be opposed to Dutton’s policies.

“When there is a hung parliament, there’s a true representation of our democracy,” he says. “I actually seek a hung parliament, and I seek a representation to make sure I can affect the hung parliament. It augments the people’s voice.”

Attacks on the Muslim independents will no doubt continue all the way up to election day — Muslim community leader and “Friend of Tony Burke” Jamal Rifi has repeatedly argued the movement is opportunistic, conflating issues and “militarising” Gaza pain for political gain.

As Ghaith Krayem says, the frustration with Labor did not need people like him to stoke it.

“The reality is, movements like ours would not have come into existence if the community felt its voice was being heard,” he says. “The community has felt for a long time that it’s been marginalised and silenced, and it’s incorrect to suggest that any individuals are taking advantage of anger within the community. That anger is there and it is real and it is very widespread. And what movements like ours and The Muslim Vote are doing is giving voice to the community.”

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